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20/08/2008

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MAIN FOCUS | 19/08/2008

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What path for Pakistan?

Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has resigned, forestalling impeachment proceedings instituted by the new government under Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, chairman of the Pakistani People's Party, and the former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Europe's press discusses the uncertain future of the nuclear power Pakistan.

With articles from the following publications:
The Guardian - United Kingdom, Jyllands-Posten - Denmark, El Mundo - Spain, Die Presse - Austria

The Guardian - United Kingdom

The Guardian writes that the new leaders of Pakistan bring the country no closer to stability: "But although he has finally bowed out - there remained no other option once both the army and the US refused to back his bid to stay in power - Pakistan is not really in any condition to be euphoric. Suicide bombings are rampant, the Taliban have control over parts of the country, and the economy is in free fall. ...  Zardari and Sharif have given the nation ample reason in the past to deeply mistrust their governance. ... So great is their unpopularity that there exists a vociferous segment of Pakistani society that continues to believe that Musharraf was the better option. ... But even among the strongest supporters of democracy there is anxiety about what tomorrow brings. The removal of Musharraf means Sharif and Zardari no longer have common cause, and the jostling for power between them is likely to get very ugly, just when the country most needs them to put aside personal enmities and deal with the problems at hand. ... The fragility of Pakistan's democracy makes the months ahead particularly perilous. If things get worse, as they may well do, it will be easy to blame democracy itself."   (19/08/2008)

Jyllands-Posten - Denmark

The resignation of the Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf holds out hope for the entire country, writes the Jyllands-Posten: "The situation is also critical for the US. America's support for Musharraf was greatly frowned upon in Pakistan. Now the US must take a clear stand towards a new president and his attitude to the US. But one thing is clear. Musharraf's resignation brings new hope for Pakistan. For the first time in years there is now the chance that Pakistan will become a democratic state and that its citizens will attain the rights to which they are entitled." (19/08/2008)

El Mundo - Spain

El Mundo newspaper calls on the West to encourage Pakistan's stability following the resignation of President Musharraf. "For years Musharraf was the main US ally in the fight against Islamic fundamentalism in the region. But his fall was clearly foreseeable from the moment he refused to implement the democratic reforms demanded of him. Added to that was his inability to fight the Taliban, which was able to act unhindered along the long mountainous border with Afghanistan and keep the Nato forces stationed there in check. For the international community, much is at stake in Pakistan, both because of its geostrategic position and because it is the sole nuclear power with an Islamic majority. For these reasons the West should commit itself with full force to the stabilisation and democratisation of the country, above all because al-Qaida has long been trying to destabilise it." (19/08/2008)

Die Presse - Austria

For Austrian daily Die Presse, the political career of Pakistan's former President Pervez Musharraf has not yet ended: "Can things ... only get better? Yes, because with the departure of Musharraf, who was chief of staff for many years, the first step has been taken towards getting Pakistan out of a permanent crisis. Musharraf, allegedly a close ally of the US in the fight against terror, had long since become a liability for everyone: in recent times he showed little respect for the country's democratic institutions, the independence of its judiciary and its civil society, and he ultimately failed in the battle against militant Islamists. All Musharraf can do now is try to save face. For the ex-general and now also ex-president knows only too well that in Pakistani politics a comeback can never be ruled out. Nawaz Sharif was prime minister before he was exiled to Saudi Arabia - today he is once again among those pulling the strings in Islamabad. So can Musharraf also hope to return to power - perhaps a couple of years from now?"  (19/08/2008)

MAIN FOCUS | 18/08/2008

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The consequences of the Caucasus crisis

Military action in the conflict between Georgia and Russia appears to have come to an end. Today the Russian troops are to begin their withdrawal. However it remains unclear what the political fallout of the crisis will be.

With articles from the following publications:
Magyar Nemzet - Hungary, Le Figaro - France, Der Standard - Austria, Delo - Slovenia, Diário de Notícias - Portugal

Magyar Nemzet - Hungary

Against the background of the conflict in the Caucasus, the conservative newspaper Magyar Nemzet sees the need for a "reappraisal" of European security policy: "The EU's room to manoeuvre is best demonstrated by the fact that the role of the ambitious French president and EU Council president is currently limited to that of messenger. ... We must dispel the illusions that established themselves in the heads of Western decision makers at the end of the Cold War which resulted in overly optimistic and flawed security policy. And above all, Europe too must rid itself of these illusions. ... The countries of Central Eastern Europe must not turn their backs on historical experience, and it would be wrong to expect them to do so. If the Russians have 'paranoid views', why shouldn't they? ... Today the decisive question for the countries of Eastern Europe is whether the EU can implement an effective and uniform security policy within the foreseeable future, one that provides protection from growing Russian influence in the region." (18/08/2008)

Le Figaro - France

In a guest article for Le Figaro newspaper, French President and current EU Council President Nicolas Sarkozy defends the peace plan negotiated for the Caucasus conflict, and criticises the shortcomings of EU institutions in dealing with such international crises. "This plan has not solved all the problems. ... But it has concluded a ceasefire between the two countries. ... If the Treaty of Lisbon were in force, the European Union would have institutions capable of dealing with an international crisis. ... This reconfirms my conviction that Europe's most important mission is to protect the Europeans." (17/08/2008)

Der Standard - Austria

Russia's political and economic pressure on those countries it refers to as its "close neighbours" prompts Austrian daily Der Standard to call for the process of integration of states like Georgia into the West to be accelerated: "The restoration of the Soviet empire minus its ideology is a concept that has been conjured up by Russia's foreign policymakers since the beginning of the Putin era in 2000 - elegantly packaged, for sure - for example as the demand for more balance in the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) as regards vote monitoring or human rights reports. ... The 'Pax Russa' aims to create a system of dependent states around Russia. ... Georgia's destruction is a fact that not even the West can prevent any longer. Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the two secessionist provinces, are lost to the central government and in the long term to Georgia's inhabitants there. Nonetheless, the 'Pax Russa' cannot change Georgia's pro-Western political course. It is conceivable that the Caucasian republic could join Nato, which Moscow is trying to prevent, and draw closer to the EU once Michail Saakaschvili's era has ended. This would be a vital message for those countries within reach of 'Russia's peace'." (18/08/2008)

Delo - Slovenia

The political career of Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili is over, writes Delo newspaper: "The renovator of 2003 was quickly shown to be a semi-dictator ... And his days are perhaps numbered. ... The mood in Georgia shows that the war-shocked population would widely support a change of government." Early elections could conceivably see Georgians electing a new government opposed to NATO entry, the paper argues. "In this way the Georgians would help Russia close another door to the US. ... The EU and above all Germany are dependent on Russia economically. Germany, Italy and France blocked Georgia's NATO entry last year, the three countries that did the most business with Russia last year. The long-term interests of the EU lie in its neighbours developing more or less functioning democracies, free media and transparent governments. US-backed President Saakashvili brought none of this about." (18/08/2008)

Diário de Notícias - Portugal

In the aftermath of the war in the Caucasus the daily Diário de Notícias fears that military spending will increase all over the world: "Russia and Georgia fought only a small war which nonetheless was sufficient to show that the world is still a dangerous place and that the times of peace that were promised ... at the end of the Cold War in 1991 are still a fata morgana. Russians and Americans have not boosted their arsenal of nuclear weapons in recent years, but India, Pakistan and North Korea have reaffirmed their status as 'nuclear powers'. ... It is alarming to observe a worldwide process of rearmament. ... Russia's investments in weapons went up by 15 percent last year. ... China has tripled its investments over the past decade. ... In view of Russia's show of strength, which has frightened many countries (above all the Baltic states, Poland and the Ukraine), there is a risk that spending on weapons will increase even further - above all in the Eastern European countries where the US plans to install its controversial missile defence system." (16/08/2008)

MAIN FOCUS | 15/08/2008

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Is Europe facing recession?

The economy of the Eurozone is shrinking: according to the Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat), for the first time since the introduction of the euro the gross domestic product (GDP) of the 15 member countries sunk by 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2008. Is Europe facing a recession?

With articles from the following publications:
El País - Spain, De Volkskrant - Netherlands, La Repubblica - Italy, Süddeutsche Zeitung - Germany

El País - Spain

The daily El País calls for concerted action from Europe to face the challenge of the economic crisis: "One year after the onset of the first symptoms of a financial crisis, all indicators confirm that the fever has ... spread to all the national economies. Europe's [national economies] have slowed down dramatically, above all key economies like Germany, France, Italy and of course Spain, which have all registered zero or slightly above zero growth in comparison to previous growth figures. ... Europe must adopt a coordinated strategy to tackle common problems such as financial instability. The European Central Bank has an important role to play here. So far it has been preoccupied with fighting inflation rather than boosting the economy and its capacity to create jobs." (15/08/2008)

De Volkskrant - Netherlands

The national newspaper De Volkskrant does not see the poor economic data as an indication of an impending recession in the Eurozone. "Worn out by the constant flow of bad economic news over the past year, consumers are obviously pessimistic. But there is no cause for panic because there are arguments to support a more positive perspective. ... Within four weeks the oil price has gone down by almost 25 percent, and many other raw materials are considerably cheaper than they were. The threat of further inflation is therefore receding. And the euro has also sunk below the 1.50 dollar mark, which will have a positive impact on exports. And even the 0.5 percent decrease in Germany's economy ... was considerably less than expected. In short, it does not look like we are facing a recession, which is generally announced when growth decelerates in two consecutive quarters. Therefore we would be well advised not to talk of a recession for the time being." (15/08/2008)

La Repubblica - Italy

La Repubblica newspaper stresses the role of consumers in the European economic crisis. "Technically we are not yet there, but psychologically Europe has already entered a recession. Eurostat signals a GDP drop of 0.2 percent in the Eurozone, the worst result since the introduction of the single currency. ... The European Commission ... is attempting to dampen the alarm signals and span safety nets. ... But what really troubles Brussels is the confidence of businesses and consumers, which has sunk to an all-time low and dispels all hope of a reverse trend. Paradoxically, the proof comes from a positive index. Despite the rise in raw material prices, inflation has remained constant at four percent. That means citizens have responded to the price rises by curtailing consumption, and in so doing brought about the negative trend." (15/08/2008)

Süddeutsche Zeitung - Germany

For the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung the quarterly statistics for gross domestic product (GDP) are not a reliable basis for effective economic policy: "Whether GDP goes up or down by one percent is completely irrelevant for office workers. ... If the figure is high, the companies did well. But for the average citizen what counts is how much goes into their pockets. ... Moreover, it is long-term development that matters. ... Instead of debating schemes to give the economy a quick boost [politicians] should be concentrating their energy on how the state can create good conditions for growth - growth that benefits the majority of the population - in the long term. ... It is more effective to invest in education. Highly qualified workers have less to fear from cheap competition from abroad. This strategy may not improve the GDP figures for the next quarter but it would certainly improve the long-term prospects of employees." (15/08/2008)

MAIN FOCUS | 14/08/2008

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No agreement in Zimbabwe

Negotiations over forming a government in Zimbabwe have come to a halt. After President Robert Mugabe anounced he will form a coalition with a splinter party, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai walked out of the negotiations organised with the help of South African President Thabo Mbeki. Following the contentious elections in June, prospects for the country's democratisation seem to have all but disappeared. Europe's press discusses the background and consequences.

With articles from the following publications:
Financial Times - United Kingdom, Helsingin Sanomat - Finland, Süddeutsche Zeitung - Germany

Financial Times - United Kingdom

The Financial Times calls for the resignation of Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe: "To have a chance at recovery, Zimbabwe needs a clean break. This is something the long-suffering Zimbabwean electors proved only too aware of when they voted in a first round of presidential elections in March to retire Robert Mugabe. At the least, they now need a strictly defined, internationally monitored, timetable that brings a near-term end to his catastrophic rule. ... Mr Mugabe may be willing to relinquish some of his powers. But he has sought to retain the trump card – a grip on the army and police. It is hubristic on his part to think that simply handing over the ruins of Zimbabwe's economy will be sufficient to persuade the international community to step forward with a rescue package. ... The wily autocrat is turning negotiations into a means of preserving the status quo. At this point, the talks are only worth pursuing if they establish a peaceful way for him to go." (14/08/2008)

Helsingin Sanomat - Finland

Liisa Laakso, professor for international politics at the University of Helsinki, calls in the daily Helsingin Sanomat for the West to exercise restraint in the Zimbabwean crisis: "Zimbabwe holds the world record for inflation. ... The spread of AIDS is the main reason for the world's lowest life expectancy of 35 years. ... There is also great danger of widespread famine. ... The government of Robert Mugabe and [his party] ZANU-PF is responsible for the country's present plight. ... But the opposition has proven its staying power and the old government's resources for oppressing [the people] are almost exhausted. The new situation demands ... a division of powers. ... But the West should not be given credit for this. ... It will take time and effort to achieve national reconciliation, economic recovery and security in the near future. The fate [of this country] lies in the hands of the Zimbabweans. We can only offer support to the Third World in its search for lasting solutions." (14/08/2008)

Süddeutsche Zeitung - Germany

The Süddeutsche Zeitung comments on the role of South African Presidet Thabo Mbeki in the coalition talks in Zimbabwe, calling for one last negotiation attempt: "Thabo Mbeki could not have ... disgraced himself more. He will appear empty handed at the summit meeting of the South African Development Community [in Johannesburg]. ... With Mbeki as a negotiator, there will presumably be no true sharing of power in Zimbabwe between the tyrant Robert Mugabe and the opposition. Mbeki is far too close to the despot. Morgan Tsvangirai, head of the MDC opposition party, had no choice. He had to break off negotiations. ... It would have been a complete surrender to the criminal Mugabe if Tsvangirai had played at being prime minister without any power. ... The South African states should recall Mbeki as negotiator and send a neutral personality from their ranks to Harare. Tsvangirai should agree to one last attempt at negotiation." (14/08/2008)

MAIN FOCUS | 13/08/2008

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How to go on in the Caucasus?

The war in the Caucasus is over. Moscow ordered a stop to all fighting, and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has agreed to an EU peace plan after talks with EU Council President Nicolas Sarkozy. What should Europe do next?

With articles from the following publications:
Sydsvenska Dagbladet - Sweden, The Guardian - United Kingdom, De Standaard - Belgium, La Repubblica - Italy, Les Echos - France, Gazeta Wyborcza - Poland

Sydsvenska Dagbladet - Sweden

"How should the West react" to the conflict in the Caucasus? ask US diplomat Richard Holbrooke and Ronald D. Asmus, director of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in the pages of the daily Sydsvenska Dagbladet. "First of all, we can help Georgia defend its territorial integrity within its own borders and rebuild Tbilisi. Secondly, the West should realize that Georgia's neighbour Russia is no neutral peacekeeper. For a long time now, Moscow has been using its international mandate to carry out neo-imperialist policies. Instead of allowing Russia this mandate, the West should insist that neutral UN troops monitor the ceasefire. Thirdly, the West should work actively to counter Russia's influence on its neighbours – particularly on Ukraine, which in all probability is Moscow's next target for extending its influence. The USA and EU must be more clear on this point, so that Ukraine and Georgia are not considered some kind of grey zone." (13/08/2008)

The Guardian - United Kingdom

Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev defends Russia's action in The Guardian: "Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against 'small, defenceless Georgia' is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity. ... By declaring the Caucasus, a region that is thousands of miles from the American continent, a sphere of its 'national interest', the US made a serious blunder. Of course, peace in the Caucasus is in everyone's interest. But it is simply common sense to recognise that Russia is rooted there by common geography and centuries of history. Russia is not seeking territorial expansion, but it has legitimate interests in this region. ... The international community's long-term aim could be to create a sub-regional system of security and cooperation that would make any provocation, and the very possibility of crises such as this one, impossible. Building this type of system would be challenging and could only be accomplished with the cooperation of the region's countries themselves. Nations outside the region could perhaps help, too - but only if they take a fair and objective stance." (13/08/2008)

De Standaard - Belgium

De Standaard newspaper criticises European reactions to the conflict in the Caucasus. "The justifications for the Russian action that we are now hearing from some Europeans, led by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, must simply be condemned. Europe is letting itself be blackmailed by Moscow, which is only too ready to brandish the weapon of energy [supplies]. If Europe stands for anything, it must also defend its values. It has the moral duty to accompany countries on its borders on the difficult path to development, freedom and democracy. ... Anyone who defends Putin's action must accept that more is at stake here than the status of a small smuggler's den. How believable is the European Union, if it allows small countries on its borders to be forced back into the big Russian empire?" (13/08/2008)

La Repubblica - Italy

The current President of the European Council, Nicolas Sarkozy, has proposed the deployment of an EU peacekeeping force to the Caucaus. The daily paper La Repubblica is musing over a possible EU peace mission: "It is out of the question that Nicolas Sarkozy's proposed peace troops would march under the flag of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, given Russian irritation at Tbilisi's bid for acceptance in NATO." Most likely, "troops would be provided by those western countries that have the best relationship with Russia - Germany, France and Italy. ... Understandably, Russia does not want participation from America, the countries of the former Warsaw Pact or the former Soviet republics. This will also mean disappointment for Estonia, one of the first countries that offered assistance. ... As in Lebanon, the mission will be carried out in consultation with the rival states. It will not forcefully impose peace, but rather monitor and safeguard it." (13/08/2008)

Les Echos - France

The daily paper Les Echos analyses the decisive role the European Union could play regarding the conflict in the Caucasus – despite the differing positions of member states: "President Sarkozy's shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Tbilisi is highly risky. President Bush's weakness at the sad conclusion of his mandate puts the European Union in the front row when it comes to replacing weapons with diplomacy in Georgia. ... The EU 27 hold all the aces when it comes to getting the Kremlin's ear. Especially in the economic sense. ... There is still time before Moscow renounces international investors, of whom the Europeans are the upper echelon. ... Ultimately, Russia wants to bring an end to its years of sitting on the fence, and enter the World Trade Organization. ... But the question remains as to whether the Europeans will play their aces, which assumes they will speak with one voice. And there is nothing less certain than that." (13/08/2008)

Gazeta Wyborcza - Poland

Poland's left-liberal daily Gazeta Wyborcza criticizes EU-Council President Nicolas Sarkozy as having been too soft on his Russian counterpart Dmitri Medvedev in Moscow. Sarkozy did not speak for Poles: "Old Europe does not listen to Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians. Old Europe does not want to mess things up with Russia, and it does not consider the inviolability of Georgia's borders important enough to aggravate relations with Russia. ... We can explain forever that [our position] has nothing to do with Russophobia, but rather with years of experience. So, after Georgia, if the time comes [for Russia] to browbeat Europe over Moldavia and other states, we will happily be able to say 'we told you so.' We will still have our self-respect. Only: Poland's security will be guaranteed by real alliances built on common interests, and not by moral arguments." (13/08/2008)


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